OSI Researcher concludes evidence of collusion.

Scraping and archiving Polymarket and UMA discussions, especially from Discord, gives light to serious concerns of collusion. When determining clarifications, Polystaff reserve themselves almost exclusively for a small and consistent group of users. Those users describing themselves (in congruence with evidence) as UMA voters, market influencers, and high volume participants on Poly. In public conversation, these users explicitly deride objectivity, celebrate their ability to resolve markets arbitrarily, and rationalize insider-priority (securing profits) to justify capricious clarification campaigns and market resolutions. These conversations remain publicly available to read, at the time of this submission. These conversations are happen in the presence of UMA and Polymarket staff.

Multiple markets have been impacted by the situation described above. At this moment, I’m observing (as a non-stakeholder) “Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?”, a market publicly described as being dominated by UMA and Poly insiders. Multiple attempts to resolve this market have resulted in oracle failure, while insiders successfully persuade Polystaff not to issue any clarification. Meanwhile, the conditions of this market:

"This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government holds any amount of Bitcoin in its reserves at any point between January 20, 2025, ET and April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

"The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and/or the US federal reserve, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used."

-have been overwhelmingly satisfied for resolution, evidenced by the highest official sources within The United States Government, including The White House, The President, The Crypto Czar, and politicians from both major parties. Also evidenced by multiple well known attorneys, world leading chain-analysis platform Akrham, and an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting: including Associated Press, BBC, Wall Street Journal, NPR, Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC, and over a dozen other leading platforms.